From November 6th to 8th, the 2018 China International Nickel and Cobalt Industry Annual Conference sponsored by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association was held in Xiamen. Xu Aidong, chief expert of Antaike Information Co., Ltd., said at the meeting that as the supply gap narrows, the global nickel market will be in a tight balance in 2019.

From the perspective of production, Xu Aidong said that in 2018, China's primary nickel output was 680,000 tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year, of which NPI output was 450,000 tons, electrolytic nickel plus general nickel output dropped to 180,000 tons, and nickel salt output was 4.5 tons. 10,000 tons; China's nickel sulfate production is 450,000-500,000 tons, and the global output is about 700,000 tons.

"At present, in the production of stainless steel, ferronickel is a strong substitute for electrolytic nickel, and the output of nickel-containing pig iron is gradually increasing." Xu Aidong believes that there are two main reasons for this: First, the production and smelting profit of ferronickel is relatively good, and the operating rate of the factory is increasing. Second, with the gradual flow of Indonesian nickel ore into China, the grade of ferronickel gradually increased, from 8.5%-9% nickel content to 9%-10% level, which also increased the supply of nickel metal.

In addition, Xu Aidong said that since 2016, nickel sulfate has always had a premium over electrolytic nickel, fluctuating between 10,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton. Since March this year, with the continuous upward movement of the nickel price, the premium of nickel sulfate over electrolytic nickel has continued to decline, currently fluctuating around 10,000 yuan/ton, while the price difference between ferronickel and electrolytic nickel is -10,000-10,000 yuan/ton. During the period, the price difference between ferronickel, nickel sulfate and electrolytic nickel has been narrowing.

In terms of consumption, Xu Aidong said that China's primary nickel consumption this year was 1.23 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, stainless steel accounted for 85%, electroplating accounted for 5%, and batteries accounted for 4%. "This year, China's stainless steel nickel consumption increased by 3%, while the growth of nickel for batteries reached 16%." Xu Aidong said that in 2017, China's apparent stainless steel consumption was about 20 million tons, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year; in 2018, it is expected to be 21.85 million tons, an increase of The speed is 9.3%. In 2018, the consumption of nickel in China's battery industry was about 65,000 tons, and the nickel for new energy vehicles was about 20,000 tons (all-nickel concept).

In terms of the global nickel market, Ricardo Ferreira, director of the Market Research and Statistics Department of the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), said at the meeting that world nickel mine production will continue to increase in 2019. "Affected by Indonesia's nickel ore export ban, global nickel ore production continued to decrease from 2013 to 2016, and gradually recovered from 2016. INSG expects global nickel ore production to reach 2.304 million tons in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; 2019 It will reach 2.445 million tons in 2018, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year. Almost all of the increase will come from Indonesia to meet its domestic production and export of nickel pig iron. In addition, many potential new projects are in the pipeline, and some mines may also be launched soon will be back to work.”

In addition, Ricardo Ferreira said that the combined production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia has exceeded one-third of the global market. INSG expects global nickel pig iron production to reach 740,000 tons in 2018 and 830,000 tons in 2019.

"Since 2009, global nickel consumption has also continued to grow, and China's consumption accounts for more than 50% of global primary nickel consumption. INSG expects global nickel consumption to reach 2.35 million tons in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%; 2.422 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%." Ricardo Ferreira said that the stainless steel industry is the most important application market for nickel, accounting for about 70%, and the battery industry is expected to bring structural changes to nickel consumption in the next few years. In addition, global electric vehicle sales are growing rapidly, up 72% in 2015, 41% in 2016, and 57% in 2017. In the first eight months of this year, the global sales of electric vehicles exceeded 1 million, a year-on-year increase of 69%; the sales of electric vehicles in China exceeded 540,000, a year-on-year increase of nearly double.

Looking ahead, Xu Aidong believes that the global nickel market will be in a tight balance in 2019. From the beginning of 2016 to 2018, there has been a continuous shortage of supply in the global nickel market. In 2018, the global nickel production was 2.2 million tons, the consumption was 2.35 million tons, and the global gap was 143,000 tons. The widening gap between supply and demand stimulated the recovery of nickel prices. From January to September this year, the spot price of LME nickel was 13,660 US dollars / ton, and the domestic average price was 106,400 yuan / ton. "Next year, the global nickel production will be 2.4 million tons, and the consumption will be about 2.42 million tons. The gap will be narrowed to 22,000 tons. The LME nickel price will fluctuate at the level of 12,000-15,000 US dollars / ton, and the average price will be slightly higher than that in 2018. ."

Ricardo Ferreira also said that the global nickel supply gap increased in 2018 and is expected to decrease in 2019.

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